East vs West weather

Dry West, Wet East ⭐⭐

• It is a true East vs West divide this week

• Storms and rain are expected today in the Midwest with a strong wind and tornado threat pretty close to Chicago

• Then rain increases for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic midweek

• Until storms move east, it will be hot in the Northeast with heat indices near 100°

• But the West is dry with fire weather watches up for Tuesday and Wednesday

• Heat increases in the Southwest later this week, but turns cooler in the Northwest midweek

Shut-up, Tropics ⭐

• There is one wave way the heck out there that could turn into a depression in the next few days

• The ensemble Euro tropical cyclone probability does not keep a depression past the Caribbean; other models turn the system north before getting anywhere near the US coast

• NOAA updated their Atlantic hurricane forecast to represent the more active season we're already seeing

• The National Tropical Weather Conference has some NHC forecasters Tuesday at 10am cdt

⚡ NWS is testing a new radar webpage. I haven't played with it too much yet but some features look cool.

So many cyclones

Let's Start With Hanna in the Gulf of Mexico ⭐⭐

• Hanna is just barely a tropical storm, surrounded by warm water and not much else to deter it

• It is less than 300 miles from Corpus Christi and is moving along at a respectable 9 mph

• Hanna looks pretty good in the Gulf this morning

• It will strengthen before it reaches land but does not have enough time to reach hurricane strength

• Heavy rain for southern Texas is the biggest impact

• Winds will be gusty and storm surge seems mostly low

• Landfall is likely early Saturday afternoon

• The tropical storm warnings issued locally by the NWS offices is loaded with information, especially a label for each type of impact ranging from significant to limited

• Impacts will lessen through the day on Sunday

And Then There is Douglas in the Pacific ⭐⭐

• Douglas is a formidable major hurricane heading west in the Pacific

• It is moving into colder water, which hurricanes hate, and the intensity will gradually drop

• The current forecast brings Douglas across Hawaii as a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm on Sunday

• Watches are coming today for Hawaii

• Three impacts are most likely: dangerous surf, flooding rain, and strong winds; the terrain of Hawaii will make for stronger threats of landslides

• Hawaii provides a statewide forecast discussion

Gonzalo Is An Interesting Forecast ⭐

• Gonzalo (gohn-SAH-loh) is not the most healthy looking cyclone in the basin

• It is a small cyclone, and they have the trickiest intensity forecasts because they are likely to intensify more quickly than models indicate

• The current forecasts don't bring Gonzalo to hurricane strength

• In fact, the current forecast dissipates Gonzalo in the Caribbean

• It'll be windy, rainy, no fun weather for the Windward Islands on Saturday

Other Tropical Concerns ⭐

• A wave is moving off Africa and across the Atlantic; this one reaches the Caribbean this time next week

• The EURO ensembles are pointing to a low forming off the Mid-Atlantic coast next week and moving east

In Other Weather ⭐

• Some stronger storms are likely this weekend in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest

• Today, big heat is forecasted in Upper Midwest; Minneapolis heat index could hit 103°

• This weekend and Monday, the heat turns up in the Northeast and Northwest

⚡ Tropical Tidbits has amazing tropical data by storm. There is also a helpful analysis via a video blog.

Did you watch Hamilton?

What Did I Miss ⭐

• I missed a couple of weeks of blogging between work and other business

• There was another tropical storm that hit New Jersey, dropped more than 2" of rain in NYC, and moved into Canada

• It's been hot, which is not too weird in July but August is usually the hottest so maybe it's a little weird

• It's been stormy for two thirds of the country, forming from hot and humid weather

Helpless Heat ⭐⭐

• It's still hot in the Southwest and Texas to start this week

• The high temperatures combined with humidity make the Southeast totally unbearable

• The term "heat dome" refers to the ridge in the upper atmosphere that promotes heat

• At the very, very end of the week, watch for temperatures to heat up in the Midwest and Northeast

Blow Us All Away ⭐

• La Niña watch is on for equal chances of a fall la niña or a fall la nada

• When it comes to Atlantic hurricanes, el niño brings shear to the Atlantic and suppresses hurricane development; la niña does not enhance the development but it doesn't hurt it

• La Niña can influence weather in different ways across the country

Burn ⭐⭐

• The West is staying dry with growing drought

• It is not too unusual for dry weather except for a lack of monsoon moisture

• Drought is widespread and not expected to improve

• This is not great for wildfires that can grow to significant large fires with these ingredients

My Shot to See a Comet ⭐

• You did have to wake up early but soon you can go out at dusk to see a comet

• Comets don't come by often and this one won't be back for 7000 years

⚡ A page I use a lot to know about upcoming weather at a glance is the WPC hazards outlook. The map is nice and the text below is a good overview.