Wrapping up September

Fire Weather is Quieter, Until Next Week ⭐⭐

• There is a lack of widespread elevated fire weather risk and that will mostly continue this week

• Certainly some parts of the Great Basin and Rockies will have isolated strong winds in addition to dry conditions that could spread wildfires

• Looking ahead, there is concern about warming temperatures next week to end September

• This excessive heat looks to stick around in early October

• Heat is not the only ingredient for wildfires, wind is included for rapid spread and dry fuels are need, which is already happening

Atlantic Tropics are Moderately Active ⭐⭐

• Tropical Depression Beta finally made landfall in Texas and will bring flooding rain there today as it nearly stalls over the state

• The rain threat shifts to Louisiana tomorrow

• Teddy is causing high surf on nearly every Atlantic coast in the western hemisphere

• Paulette is a zombie

• There is one obnoxious low in the Gulf with a low chance of formation but likely rain for southern Florida

• Fortunately there are not any obvious forecasts for strong cyclones in the next two weeks

First Day of Fall, Temperatures Acting Fall-ish ⭐

• What defines Fall just as much as the cooler temperatures is the divide in temperatures

• Cooler East and warmer West looks to last through this month

⚡ This Saturday is a fee-free day for National Parks.

⚡ Fall foliage is upon us, this prediction map is probably just based on climatology and not current conditions.

I missed a blog post last week

Well, there were tropics ⭐

• I was a little busy with Hurricane Laura making landfall as a category 4

• You would think given the wavepalooza in the Atlantic that I might be busy again

• But if you look at paths for the two invests, US impacts look minimal

• And of the two waves coming from Africa, one is weakening and one has a long way to go

• It is also a little dusty out their in the Atlantic

• The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season comes around Sept 12-ish

But, Summer isn't over ⭐

• Temperatures don't look very extreme to start this week

• Then later this week, it'll be pretty warm in the West

• It looks sunny and hot in Portland this week

Then I guess September starts tomorrow ⭐

• It's been a warm month

• West fire weather would appreciate the break

⚡ I used the MyRadar app to keep up with tropical updates during Laura. It also has a good radar presentation with many layers to choose from.

Wind & Fire

Wind: Tropical Trouble ⭐⭐

• There are two tropical depressions in the Atlantic.

• Let's look at TD 14 first. It was just named in the Caribbean. It will move close to Central America and the Yucatan peninsula through this weekend.

• Monday and Tuesday, TD 14 is forecasted to be in the western Gulf. It could be a tropical storm (as per the current forecast) but it will depend on how to does after the Yucatan and what interactions it has with... TD 13.

• And now TD 13: It hasn't even reached the Lesser Antilles yet. The current forecasted track would take it just north of the Caribbean islands with some land interaction but opportunity to strengthen.

• Monday and Tuesday, TD 13 will bring rain and wind to south Florida with an uncertain intensity but potentially as a hurricane.

• In 4 to 5 days, two tropical cyclones could be in the Gulf of Mexico.

• Here are some websites:

  • www.tropicaltidbits.com blog updates and storm by storm tools

  • www.pivotalweather.com/model.php simple model data

  • www.weathernerds.org model data but also tropics specific options

  • www.wunderground.com/hurricane easy one-stop shop

  • www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HWRF/index.php HWRF models

  • vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html model forecasts by spaghetti

Fire: West in Danger ⭐⭐

• Nationally, we're at a PL (preparedness level) 5, which is the highest and means significant activity is happening in many regions; we're at PL 3 here in the Northwest

• Drought conditions are getting worse and August heat has been rough too

• Here are some websites:

  • www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm NIFC summary

  • gacc.nifc.gov/index.php one-stop shop of information by gacc

  • www.fireweatheravalanche.org/fire map with fire perimeters

  • inciweb.nwcg.gov inciweb map with links to fire information

⚡ I try to keep my own website of links that I can get to from any browser. It may not always be up to date but it's a resource when I'm looking for that one site that I can't remember how to get to.