The benign Friday

It's Not So Active ⭐

• Just look at this map

• A lack of advisories, watches, or warnings is a big signal that the weather is not having a hazardous impact

• Yes, there is some fog in Texas, poor air quality in Oregon, and high surf in Florida

• Western Washington would be weird to not be raining, though a lot of the Northwest will have a dry break today and tomorrow

Temperatures are Warm, But Not That Warm ⭐

• Highs will be mild and pleasant in the eastern US and at least close to November averages in the West

• Not many record highs are in jeopardy though highs will be above average today

• An upcoming chance of rain in the Midwest will kill the extra warmth this weekend

Tomorrow, Though ⭐⭐

• A nearly stationary front will creep across the Midwest this weekend and the Northeast early next week

• The warmish highs keep snow far north and there is not a lot of rainfall coming with this system

• The dry Northwest weather ends Sunday

And Next Week, We're Active ⭐⭐

• A series of slower-moving systems will bring rain to the eastern half of the US

• Temperatures will be nothing spectacular so some snow will fall around the Upper Midwest to the Northeast

• After slow-front 1 on the weekend, slow-front 2 will take form Tuesday to Thursday, followed by slow-front 3 on the weekend

• A wavy jet stream is to blame, pushing systems east but not dropping a lot of cold air south

• While the Northwest is unsettled to start the week, we could get under a jet stream ridge later in the week and stay dry

⚡ The CPC released outlooks for December and winter, looking very much like La Niña

Forecast challenges

Eta Changes Course Again ⭐

• Here were are in November, officially a busy Atlantic hurricane season as a record number of cyclones have reached "storm", whether subtropical or tropical

• November cyclones have a very different environment than September; water temperatures and jet stream steering can influence a tropical system differently

• Eta formed far south and dropped heavy rain in Central America last week, made it's way over Cuba and the Florida Keys over the weekend, and has been crawling along Florida's Gulf Coast for days

• In more surprises, Eta became a hurricane again

• Now Eta is forecasted to make landfall as a weakening tropical storm tomorrow morning, crossing the peninsula and dissipating in the Atlantic shortly after

Mid-Atlantic Flood Threat ⭐⭐

• Heavy rain is coming for the next few days across the Mid-Atlantic

• A potent cold front will have a lot of moisture supplied by the jet stream

• Flood and flash flood watches are issued through tomorrow night for Charlotte and DC

• The WPC shows the excessive rainfall risk and notes possible 2" per hour rainfall rates

• Flooding is a challenge to forecast where the downpours will form that result in flooding; some areas are prone to floods but might not be the center of heaviest rain

• A few showers still around this weekend but next week looks drier to start

Short Sleeves or Wind Breaker ⭐

• Look at all the record highs this past week

• While the biggest heat is confined to the Northeast, temperatures are pretty mild for most

• In typical fall fashion, temperatures will be up and down in the next seven days, giving your closet a workout

• Here in the Northwest, we'll add a windstorm Friday night to our recently cooler temperatures

⚡ Today is the last free national parks day of this year. It never hurts to give them money but it is also nice advertising for larger families to not have to pay as much.

⚡ Ready for snow? Here's a link to snow climatology by station: https://mrcc.illinois.edu/gismaps/snowclimatology.htm

Things Change

Cold to Warm ⭐

• Today started pretty chilly in the East with wind chills near freezing in non-Florida places

• It stays cool in the East today but not for long

• Temperatures in the West are warm and will spread eastward this week

• And the switch will be complete this weekend as highs cool down in the West

Quiet Days For a While ⭐

• Wind and lake effect snow impacted the Northeast this weekend

• But by Tuesday, most of the country will have dry and calm weather

• The exception will be rain moving into the Pacific Northwest, but that's our idea of quiet anyway

• Changes arrive next weekend as snow builds into the Rockies and a new frontal system reaches the Plains

Tropics But Not Here ⭐

• There is only one cyclone in the Atlantic now and it's going to flood Central America with potentially 35" of rain for some

• But what will annoy the heck out of you is where it could be going

• Ensemble models, better at looking at longer term forecasts, are returning Eta to the Caribbean after a Central America landfall

• So where the storm will be next week will be on my next blog post

• Eta is pronounced "ate-uh", as in "I ate a pizza".

⚡ Ready for snow reports? I like this page that provides numbers once you zoom in, as well as a searchable list and changeable timeline.